Wall Street sags, "cliff" angst steals retailers' Christmas

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday as retailers' shares dropped sharply after a report that showed holiday shoppers were less enthusiastic than last year, with investors saying worries about the "fiscal cliff" may have kept them away from stores.

The Morgan Stanley retail index <.mvr> skidded 1.8 percent as holiday-related sales rose 0.7 percent from October 28 through December 24, compared with a 2 percent increase last year, according to data from MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse. The SPDR S&P Retail Trust slipped 1.5 percent to 61.24.

Janna Sampson, co-chief investment officer of OakBrook Investments in Lisle, Illinois, said worries about "fiscal cliff" tax hikes and spending cuts next year had likely kept shoppers from a last-minute rush to the stores.

"I think people held back this year, just worried about that bigger cut out of their paycheck next year and having to tighten their belt," she said. "If you've got to tighten your belts starting in January, people start worrying about overspending."

Department stores' stocks slid. Macy's lost 3 percent to $36.41, while Saks also fell 3 percent and traded at $10.30, near its session low. Online retailer Amazon.com fell 3.1 percent to $250.52.

President Barack Obama is due back in Washington early Thursday for a final effort to negotiate a deal with Congress to bridge a series of tax increases and government spending cuts set to begin next week. The president will leave Hawaii later on Wednesday, arriving in the capital early on Thursday.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> slipped 45.61 points, or 0.35 percent, to 13,093.47. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> shed 8.66 points, or 0.60 percent, to 1,418. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> dropped 23.10 points, or 0.77 percent, to 2,989.50.

Volume was light, with only 1.55 billion shares having traded at midday on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT. Many senior traders were still on vacation during this holiday-shortened week and major European markets were closed for the day.

Still, Wednesday marked the third day of losses for the S&P 500 in its worst three-day decline since mid-November.

A Republican plan that failed to gain traction last week triggered the S&P 500's recent drop, highlighting the market's sensitivity to headlines centered around the budget talks.

"No one is hitting the panic button yet, and part of that lack of panic selling is the notion that the Street is getting comfortable with the likelihood of a temporary fix for the fiscal cliff - something that gets us over the date of January 1 in a way where it can be re-addressed," said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital in Jersey City, New Jersey.

During the last five trading days of the year and the first two of next year, it's possible for a "Santa rally" to occur. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 1.8 percent during that period and risen 79 percent of the time, according to data from PrinceRidge.

The benchmark S&P 500 Index is up 12.8 percent for the year, and has recouped nearly all of the losses after the U.S. elections when the fiscal cliff concerns moved to the forefront. This is the best yearly gain for the S&P 500 since 2010.

Data showed U.S. single-family home prices rose in October, reinforcing the view that the domestic real estate market is improving, as the S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.7 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis.

In the energy sector, China's Sinopec Group and ConocoPhillips will research potentially vast reserves of shale gas in southwestern China over the next two years, state news agency Xinhua reported. Conoco's stock fell 0.8 percent to $57.99.

An outage at one of Amazon.com Inc's web service centers hit users of Netflix Inc's streaming video service on Christmas Eve and was not fully resolved until Christmas Day, a spokesman for the movie rental company said on Tuesday. Netflix rose 0.8 percent to $90.97.

(Reporting by Edward Krudy; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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Syria envoy seeks peace as clashes rage

BEIRUT (Reuters) - International envoy Lakhdar Brahimi pursued mediation efforts in Damascus on Tuesday, but there was no pause in the bloodletting as Syrian Christians marked a bleak Christmas Day with prayers for peace.

"We are here in a cave that symbolizes Syria right now," said a priest standing beside a nativity scene in a grotto.

"It is cold here but the door is open to all refugees," he told Syrian state TV. "Amid the hunger, cold and deprivation, we still have hope for peace and love for our country."

More than 44,000 Syrians have been killed since a revolt against President Bashar al-Assad erupted 21 months ago, igniting an increasingly sectarian conflict that broadly pits a Sunni Muslim majority against Assad's Alawite minority.

Christians, many of whom have been reluctant to join what they see as an Islamist-tinged insurgency, feel threatened.

Bishop John Kawak, speaking on state TV, said the Christmas holiday was "a symbol for the rebirth of the nation". He condemned "terrorism", the government's term for the rebellion.

Brahimi met some dissidents who are tolerated by Assad but rejected by the mainstream opposition and by rebels fighting to oust him, a day after he held talks with the Syrian president.

There was no word on any progress in the U.N.-Arab League' envoy's drive to end violence that has intensified in recent months as Assad uses airpower and artillery against rebel gains.

Raja Naser, secretary general of the National Coordination Body, said after meeting Brahimi that the envoy planned a week of meetings in Damascus and would stay until Sunday.

"There is still a lot of concern but there is also great hope that these meetings with other Syrian officials will result in some agreements or positive developments," he said.

But most opposition groups appear frustrated with Brahimi's quest for a deal on a transitional government. He has not clarified any role for Assad, whose foes say he must simply go, arguing that too much blood has been shed for any other outcome.

GULF PLEA

Gulf Arab leaders, who have long called for Assad's removal and some of whom have helped the rebels with guns and money, urged swift world action to halt the "massacres" and violations of international law in Syria.

The pro-opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported clashes and government shelling in hotspots across the country, including towns on the eastern outskirts of Damascus.

Abu Nidal, a spokesman for the Rebel Military Council in Damascus, said fighters had killed the head of a local security branch in the capital's suburb of Jaramana, home to a large Christian and Druze population.

In his Christmas message to the world on Tuesday, Pope Benedict encouraged Syrians not to lose hope for peace.

"May peace spring up for the people of Syria, deeply wounded and divided by a conflict which does not spare even the defenseless and reaps innocent victims," he said.

"I appeal for an end to the bloodshed, easier access for the relief of refugees and the displaced, and dialogue in the pursuit of a political solution to the conflict."

Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have fled abroad to escape the daily violence. Those who remain face severe shortages of food, fuel and other essentials as winter weather takes a grip.

Syrian activists offered a message of solidarity with Christians despite rising tensions in central Hama province, where rebels have demanded that Christian villages let them enter to force out the army and pro-Assad "shabbiha" militias.

"We say to the Christians, you are our brothers and our beloved, and your holiday is our holiday," said Abu Faisal, a Hama activist who posted a Christmas message on the Internet.

"The rebels are surrounding (the Christian town) Muhardeh to get rid of Assad's soldiers and shabbiha, but we have not forgotten your honorable stance when you took care of our refugees when the army entered Hama," he said.

"We will not accept that you are targeted by hatred, you are our brothers and our friends."

(Additional reporting by Philip Pullela in Vatican City and Asma Alsharif in Manama)

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China may require real name registration for internet access

BEIJING (Reuters) – China may require internet users to register with their real names when signing up to network providers, state media said on Tuesday, extending a policy already in force with microblogs in a bid to curb what officials call rumors and vulgarity.

A law being discussed this week would mean people would have to present their government-issued identity cards when signing contracts for fixed line and mobile internet access, state-run newspapers said.

“The law should escort the development of the internet to protect people’s interest,” Communist Party mouthpiece the People’s Daily said in a front page commentary, echoing similar calls carried in state media over the past week.

“Only that way can our internet be healthier, more cultured and safer.”

Many users say the restrictions are clearly aimed at further muzzling the often scathing, raucous – and perhaps most significantly, anonymous – online chatter in a country where the Internet offers a rare opportunity for open debate.

It could also prevent people from exposing corruption online if they fear retribution from officials, said some users.

It was unclear how the rules would be different from existing regulations as state media has provided only vague details and in practice customers have long had to present identity papers when signing contracts with internet providers.

Earlier this year, the government began forcing users of Sina Corp’s wildly successful Weibo microblogging platform to register their real names.

The government says such a system is needed to prevent people making malicious and anonymous accusations online and that many other countries already have such rules.

“It would also be the biggest step backwards since 1989,” wrote one indignant Weibo user, in apparent reference to the 1989 pro-democracy protests bloodily suppressed by the army.

Chinese internet users have long had to cope with extensive censorship, especially over politically sensitive topics like human rights, and popular foreign sites Facebook, Twitter and Google-owned YouTube are blocked.

Despite periodic calls for political reform, the ruling Communist Party has shown no sign of loosening its grip on power and brooks no dissent to its authority.

(Reporting by Ben Blanchard and Huang Yan; Editing by Michael Perry)

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Jessica Simpson Confirms: I'm Pregnant Again!

Mom & Babies
Celebrity Baby Blog

12/25/2012 at 12:15 PM ET

Courtesy Jessica Simpson; Jamie McCarthy/WireImage

It’s official: the stork is once again headed to Jessica Simpson‘s house!

Just seven months after the singer and actress delivered daughter Maxwell Drew, Simpson and fiancé Eric Johnson are expecting their second child, the couple announced via Twitter Christmas Day.

Amid growing pregnancy speculation online, the Fashion Star mentor, 32, shared a photo of her baby girl wearing holiday pajamas and smiling in the sand atop the words, “BIG SIS.”

“Merry Christmas from my family to yours!” Simpson writes.

Recently, Simpson has been spotted around Los Angeles in loose-fitting clothing. She also appeared, in a figure-hugging black dress, at best friend Cacee Cobb‘s recent wedding to Donald Faison, where she served as maid of honor.
Simpson also had been touting her recent post-pregnancy weight loss of 60 lbs. after starring in commercials for Weight Watchers and working out with celebrity trainer Harley Pasternak.

– Andrea Billups and Sarah Michaud

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

___

Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

Read More..

Yen on defensive on U.S. fiscal worry, helps Nikkei

TOKYO (Reuters) - Uncertainty over whether U.S. lawmakers will strike a deal by an end-of-year deadline to avert a severe fiscal retrenchment undermined the yen and bolstered Japanese shares on Tuesday in low volume, with many participants away on Christmas holiday.

The dollar rose to a 20-month high of 84.965 yen early on Tuesday in Asia, as Japanese markets caught up with global investors who had reacted overnight to incoming Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's weekend comments that raised the pressure on the Bank of Japan.

During a meeting on Tuesday with officials from Japan's major business lobby, Keidanren, Abe reiterated calls on the BOJ to conduct bold monetary easing to beat deflation by setting an inflation target of 2 percent.

The head of Abe's coalition partner said on Tuesday the coalition party and Abe had agreed to set a 2 percent inflation target and compile a large stimulus budget to help the economy return to growth and overcome deflation.

The yen has come under pressure as a result of expectations that the BOJ will be compelled to adopt more drastic monetary stimulus measures next year.

The dollar was expected to stay firm this week as investors repatriate dollars, and as the U.S. fiscal impasse is likely to continue to sap investor appetite for risky assets and raise the dollar's safe-haven appeal.

"The dollar is seen relatively well bid, with all focus on the fiscal cliff," said Yuji Saito, director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole in Tokyo.

"Negotiations may be carried over the weekend, but markets still expect a deal to be struck by December 31. It is unthinkable that the U.S. will risk driving its economic growth sharply lower by not agreeing to avoid it."

U.S. lawmakers and President Barack Obama were on Christmas holiday and talks were unlikely to resume until later in the week.

House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner failed to gain support for a tax plan at the end of last week, raising fears that the United States may face the "fiscal cliff" of some $600 billion in automatic spending cuts and tax increases set to start on January 1.

Japan's Nikkei stock average <.n225> resumed trading after a three-day weekend with a 1.1 percent gain, recapturing the key 10,000 mark it ceded on Friday after Boehner's failure sparked a broad market sell-off and the Tokyo benchmark closed down 1 percent. The Nikkei was likely to be supported as long as the yen stayed weak. <.t/>

"Ongoing optimism about the weak yen is lifting hopes that exporters' earnings will be better than expected," said Hiroichi Nishi, general manager at SMBC Nikko Securities.

Analysts say a near-term correction may be possible as the index is now in "overbought" territory after gaining 16.2 percent over the last six weeks, hitting a nine-month high last Friday. Its 14-day relative strength index was at 72.34, above the 70 level that signals an overbought condition.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> nudged up 0.1 percent, driven higher by surging Shanghai shares, as most Asian bourses were shut for Christmas.

The Shanghai Composite Index <.ssec> soared over 2 percent to five-month highs as investors bought property stocks on mounting optimism about the sector. Taiwan shares <.twii> jumped 1.3 percent on gains in technology and financial shares.

Asset performance in 2012: http://link.reuters.com/muc46s

2012 commodities returns: http://link.reuters.com/faz36s

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

U.S. HOLDS 2013 KEY

Goro Ohwada, president and CEO at Japan-based fund of hedge funds Aino Investment Corp, said investors were likely to focus on economic fundamentals and the United States for cues on investment direction in 2013.

"There is a feeling that an investment strategy based on economic fundamentals may finally work next year, with asset prices more closely reflecting fair value. The problem is, we don't know yet which asset is a better bet than others," Ohwada said, adding that oil and gold appeared to be near their highs.

Naohiro Niimura, a partner at research and consulting firm Market Risk Advisory, said commodities and energy prices will likely move in tight ranges in 2013, with investors eyeing political events, including the U.S. fiscal cliff outlook, Italian parliamentary election set for February 24-25, and Germany's elections in September.

"The macroeconomic policies taken this year around the world to support growth are expected to result in a moderate recovery in 2013 to reduce an excessive downside risk to prices. This will likely keep commodities, gold and energy prices near their highs," Niimura said.

(Additional reporting by Ayai Tomisawa in Tokyo; Editing by Edmund Klamann and Daniel Magnowski)

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Afghan policewoman kills coalition contractor in Kabul: NATO

KABUL (Reuters) - An Afghan woman wearing a police uniform shot dead on Monday a civilian contractor working for Western forces in the police chief's compound in Kabul, NATO said.

The incident is likely to raise troubling questions about the direction of an unpopular war.

It appeared to be the first time that a woman member of Afghanistan's security forces carried out such an attack.

There were conflicting reports about the victim.

A spokesman for the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) said a U.S. police adviser was killed by an Afghan policewoman. Then ISAF said in a statement only that it was a "contracted civilian employee" who was killed.

Mohammad Zahir, head of the police criminal investigation department, described the incident as an "insider attack" in which Afghan forces turn their weapons on Western troops they are supposed to be working with. He initially said the victim was a U.S. soldier.

After more than 10 years of war, militants are capable of striking Western targets in the heart of the capital, and foreign forces worry that Afghan police and military forces they are supposed to work with can suddenly turn on them.

The policewoman approached her victim as he was walking in the heavily guarded police chief's compound in a bustling area of Kabul. She then drew a pistol and shot him once, a senior police official told Reuters.

The police complex is close to the Interior Ministry where in February, two American officers were shot dead at close range at a time anger gripped the country over the burning of copies of the Muslim holy book at a NATO base.

"She is now under interrogation. She is crying and saying 'what have I done'," said the official, of the police officer who worked in a section of the Interior Ministry responsible for gender awareness issues.

TIPS FOR TROOPS

The insider incidents, also known as green-on-blue attacks, have undermined trust between coalition and Afghan forces who are under mounting pressure to contain the Taliban insurgency before most NATO combat troops withdraw by the end of 2014.

Security responsibilities in a country plagued by conflict for decades will be handed to Afghan security forces.

Many Afghans fear a civil war like one dominated by warlords after the withdrawal of Soviet occupying forces in 1989 could erupt again, or the Taliban will make another push to seize power if they reject a nascent peace process.

At least 52 members of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force have been killed this year by Afghans wearing police or army uniforms.

Insider attacks now account for one in every five combat deaths suffered by NATO-led forces in Afghanistan, and 16 percent of all U.S. combat casualties, according to 2012 data.

Hoping to stop the increase in the attacks, Afghan Defense Ministry officials have given their troops tips in foreign culture.

They are told not to be offended by a hearty pat on the back or an American soldier asking after your wife's health.

NATO attributes only about a quarter of the attacks to the Taliban, saying the rest are caused by personal grievances and misunderstandings. Last year, there were 35 deaths in such attacks.

Afghan forces are vulnerable to "insider attacks" of their own. In Jawzjan province in the north, a police commander shot and killed five comrades overnight, the Interior Ministry said.

Last year, he defected from the Taliban, said the ministry.

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said in a statement that the commander had rejoined the Taliban. That could not be confirmed.

(Writing by Michael Georgy; Editing by Robert Birsel)

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British retailers start online sales early

LONDON (Reuters) – British retailers have brought forward their Christmas clearance sales online in the hope that shoppers will log on to buy bargains and offset lackluster spending in stores.

Marks & Spencer launched its sale online at midday on Monday, it said on its website, while department store John Lewis said it would cut online prices when its stores close at 1700 GMT. Debenhams has already started its online sale.

Retailers in recent years have started sales online on Christmas Day, ahead of the clearances in stores from Boxing Day, but are increasingly launching their online offers before Christmas after delivery deadlines for the day have passed.

Hard-pressed shoppers have been leaving it later to buy presents in the hope that retailers would slash prices, the British Retail Consortium said.

It was forecasting that 5 billion pounds ($ 8.1 billion) would be spent in the shops on Saturday and Sunday combined, the last weekend before Christmas.

Richard Dodd, the BRC’s head of Media and Campaigns, said weekend trading had met expectations.

“Christmas, ultimately once all the final sums are done, will turn out to be acceptable but not exceptional,” he said.

He said the sector expected a modest increase in cash spending against a year go, but not necessarily any significant increase in real terms once inflation was stripped out.

Many British families‘ budgets are stretched, according to a survey from Markit that showed the biggest deterioration in household finances for seven months.

Analyst Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight said the weakening in household finances could not come at a worse time for retailers, and it highlighted why many people appeared to have been careful in their Christmas shopping this year.

“The suspicion has to be that consumers will be especially keen to take advantage of genuine major bargains in the sales to acquire items that they cannot otherwise afford or are reluctant to make at the moment,” he said.

“However, we suspect that people will likely to be more careful in buying – or reluctant to buy – items that they don’t really want or need in the sales.”

($ 1 = 0.6180 British pounds)

(Reporting by Paul Sandle; Editing by Louise Heavens)

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Sarah Drew: Baby Micah Might Be a Musician

Mom & Babies
Celebrity Baby Blog

12/21/2012 at 02:00 PM ET

Michael Buckner/Getty

She may shine as an actress on television, but off screen, Sarah Drew is a singing sensation — at least around the holidays.

“Every year we do caroling, we love music so we do a big Christmas caroling party,” the Grey’s Anatomy star, 32, told PEOPLE at the March of Dimes Celebration of Babies luncheon on Dec. 7 at the Beverly Hills Hotel.

“We bring a bunch of people into our home and we rehearse and have four-part harmonies and go out and around the block.”

But while Drew and her husband Peter Lanfer have plans to continue on the annual tradition, there will be a new caroler among their crowd: 11-month-old son Micah Emmanuel.

“He’s super vocal. We have him in music classes and … he has every different kind of instrument you can imagine, like a xylophone, and drums and shakers,” Drew says. “It’s really fun. I just want him to appreciate music. He doesn’t need to be a star.”

Other than belting out his little lungs, Micah has been busy meeting all of his milestones, including “almost” perfecting his wobbly walk.

“He’s toddling along, he’s cruising. He pulls himself up on everything and cruises along,” Drew shares.

But, if left up to her baby boy, the first-time mom admits her son would much rather prefer to hitch a ride courtesy of Drew. “We just got him this tricycle that he is obsessed with,” she says. “That’s all he wants to do, ride his tricycle.”

– Anya Leon with reporting by Melody Chiu

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

___

Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

Read More..